COE Prediction - October 1st Bidding Exercise

I believe everyone was surprised by LTA's announcement after the last bidding exercise - contrary to widespread expectation that COE quota will be reduced for the next half year, LTA has kept Category A, B and E COEs' monthly supply constant while reducing only the Goods vehicles and Motorcycles by 22.5% and 8.2% respectively.

By the way, I have found a site myCarForum that uses a good charting tool to show the trend of COEs since mid 2002 - here are the links to Category A chart and Category B chart. COE quota premium for private vehicles (Category A & B) have stayed below the $20K mark in the last six months so it has resulted in a stable car refresh (i.e. motorists bought new cars to replace their aging ones). On the other hand, goods vehicles have experienced a special situation. Euro IV emission standards was implemented from October 2006, ahead of many other countries - praise LTA for being environmentally friendly. However, dealers were slow to bring in goods vehicle models that meet the Euro IV emission standards and the demand for Category C COE were depressed for many months. This resulted in a corresponding low Prevailing Quota Premium to renew COE for goods vehicles. Many owners of old goods vehicles took advantage and did so. The reduction of Category C COEs for the next half year should drive up the quota premium and hopefully drive old goods vehicles off the roads. LTA is wiser after this experience.

The rush to buy before the anticipated reduction of COE quota has came to null so I predict that the quota premium will further soften. Potential buyers have a longer horizon to time their purchase without the fear of reduced supply and dealers have not significantly lower their selling price after the recent run-up.

Prediction on September 25:
Category A: $15,000-16,000
Category B: $16,000-17,000

Verdict on October 3:
Category A: $16,999
Category B: $17,102

Your Ride's Contact to the Ground

Do you know how much direct contact area does your ride have with the ground? Well, it is just about four rectangles of 20cm by 10cm. The four pieces of tyres are what holds your car to the tarmac at all speed, whether you are stationary, moving off or travelling at high speed. Thus, you should budget for a good set of tyres suitable for the local climate and your driving style.

You can check out the "TECH" section this website 1010 Tires to find an appropriate set of tyres for your ride. You should also examine your tyres on a regular basis for wear and tear; this is especially important if you are going on a long trip e.g. driving up North to Kuala Lumpur.

One of the more interesting tyre-maker website that I have came across is Michelin's. You can explore Michelin's A Better Way Forward interactive site which is very entertaining and educational. You should not miss visiting the Safety Zone to watch the video on how to react to a blow-out tyre while driving! Drive safely!

COE Prediction: Sep 2nd Bidding

Did you track the last bidding exercise? It was interesting as the quota premiums for Categories A and B were at $16K and $17K at 2pm on Sep 5, 2 hours before the closing of the bidding. After report of the computer gliche resulting in a low Category A quota premium of $8,118 in the previous bidding exercise, many dealers were not taking risk to put in last minute bids and this may have resulted in the spike.

There are 1,444 and 458 unsuccessful bids in the respective Categories A and B. I think some of the dealers may have priced their selling price a little too low and attracted too many orders. Is that a problem for them? No, they can always not put in a winning bid and the order will automatically expire after the stated attempts in the sales agreement. Another common tactic is to ask the buyers to top up for a higher bid. At the end of the day, the dealer will still make their profits; it is just a matter of how much margin they can realize.

With the large number of unsuccessful bids and the news of reduced quota for COEs in the next half year, the demand will keep the quota premium sustained at current level. So here is my prediction:

Prediction on September 12:
Category A: $17,000-18,000
Category B: $18,000-19,000

Verdict on September 19:
Category A: $17,941
Category B: $19,589

Good Estimate of Fuel Consumption

My colleague was telling me about her car's heavy fuel consumption and elaborated that it was an average of 400 km on about $70 tank of petrol. So how accurate is the estimate of fuel consumption? Fuel consumption is defined in my opinion as the distance in kilometres travelled per one litre of petrol (since we are using the metrics system of measure). $70 worth of petrol at a price of $1.70 per litre is only about 42 litres. Thus, her estimate is 400/42 = 9.5 km/l.

There is a more accurate way to track your fuel consumption:
Step 1. Fill your tank completely.
Step 2. Reset your trip meter.
Step 3. Drive till your fuel guage is low.
Step 4. Read your trip meter when you arrive at the pump for the refuel.
Step 5. Fill your tank completely.
Step 6. Write your distance travelled on your fuel receipt and you can compute the fuel consumption on the previous tank of petrol by dividing the distance travelled (km) with the volume of petrol added (l).
Step 7. Go to step 2.

You should do this continuously or at least several times in a cycle to get a good estimate because pump attendants practise personal approach to fill your tank - some rely on the auto-stop, some continue to add till the nearest dollar value, some continue to add to the brim, etc. You got to watch out for your paintwork if the petrol overflows, so observe if the attendant splashes water at your fuel inlet. The variability of the auto-stop also introduces some difference to the actual fuel added.

So, what is your accurate fuel consumption? My 5-year-old 2.0 MPV is still doing a 9.1 km/l.

New - Tool page is added.

On Sale at Comex

Can you believe it? I was walking about at the Comex 2007 Exhibition in Suntec City Hall 601 and stumbled upon this booth selling .... car. Gee! I wonder what is the association between IT and Motoring? Did anyone book a car at Comex?

Esplanade

6am - before 6pm $1.50 per hour or part thereof
12pm - 2pm $1.50 per entry (Monday to Friday only, excluding PH )
6pm - before 10pm $5.50 per entry
10pm onwards $1.50 per entry

Free Parking on Sunday Only from 6am - 2pm (except Public Holidays)

Source: http://www.esplanade.com/SOPApp/espsop/portal_proxy?uri=1HM=oU80i!Lr,WkmrHl5chkBef14,YQcea-W_DFltV1cHwIEsJFM

Last updated: March 2008

Suntec City

Mondays to Fridays (except Public Holidays)
7.00 am - 5.00 pm $1.07 per ½ hour or part thereof
5.00 pm - 12.00 midnight $2.14 flat per entry

12.00 midnight – 7.00 am the next day
$1.07 per hour or part thereof

Saturdays, Sundays and Public Holidays
7.00 am - 12.00 midnight $1.07 per hour or part thereof

12.00 midnight - 7.00 am the next day
$1.07 per hour or part thereof

* All charges are inclusive of GST

Source: http://www.suntecsingapore.com/geninfo/carpark.htm