COE Prediction - January 1st Bidding Exercise

I reflected on the year 2007 which is a very eventful one for me - my previous role at my workplace was eliminated at around this time last year and it was quite a roller-coaster ride as I bidded on new roles and found a new role which is quite a change. I am now in a project role which will last only 24 months. So even though I was tempted to upgrade my ride, I don't think I should take up a new motor loan when job security is not assured. Another important factor is that my current ride is still in an excellent condition and I had also survived a major incident with it (I will write about the incident later).

There have been several local newspaper articles on COE and the softening of demand for new cars due to the young age of most vehicles on the road and longer loans taken up by motorists. As the Lunar New Year draws closer, demand for Category B COE will increase since Chinese business men are willing to pay for a new luxury ride while demand for Category A COE will sustain at current level with the average motorists being hit by the increased cost of living.

Oops! I have made a mistake in the bidding exercise date, thinking that the bidding will close on Wednesday January 2 when it is not even open yet. Thus, I have to revise the prediction in view of the three-week elapse time from the last bidding exercise.

Prediction on December 31:

Category A: $14,000-15,000
Category B: $16,000-17,000

Prediction revised on January 2:

Category A: $15,000-16,000
Category B: $17,000-18,000

Verdict on January 9:
Category A: $14,052
Category B: $15,989

Gee, my original prediction is much closer. Well, demand is really slowing down ...

COE Prediction - December 2nd Bidding Exercise

Well, it was a surprise to know that the quota premium had fallen in both categories. It may be due to the holiday shopping fatique, the violatile stock markets and regular car refreshers (those who upgrade their rides within 3 years) are still burdened with longer loan repayment ... but generally, demand for new cars is down.

With the lower pricing, some buyers may come in but I do not think the demand will spike since there are two more bidding exercises in time for Lunar New Year delivery. Yes, Chinese wear new clothes during the Lunar New Year and driving a new car is a plus.

Prediction on December 16:

Category A: $14,000-15,000

Category B: $15,000-16,000

Verdict on December 19:

Category A: $14,001

Category B: $15,802

Yes! Spot-on this month for both Categories.

Track record for prediction:

COE Prediction - December 1st Bidding Exercise

I am again tardy to post my prediction as I have been travelling so much on the job. Well, it is now December and most of us are in a jolly good mood - traffic is heavy on Orchard Roads every evening as this is the season to shop for Christmas gifts and self-pampering after a hard year's work.

There are few of us who can afford to buy our loved ones a car for Christmas so I do not think there is any spike in demand at this time. Although some will take advantage of the lower quota premium and corresponding lowering in selling price of cars, I am quite sure that the quota premium will sustain at about current level - a marginal increase in Category A while Category B may see a slight drop.

Prediction on December 2:
Category A: $15,000-16,000
Category B: $16,000-17,000

Verdict on December 5:
Category A: $12,001
Category B: $13,114