COE Prediction - August 2008 1st Bidding Exercise

My poll for visitors currently has two responses - 1 expected higher quota premium, 0 expected flat and 1 expected lower quota premium.

Petrol prices has been revised downwards five times and it seems that the inflation driven by oil has somewhat eased. However, there is still much uncertainty in the overall economic outlook. I believe that most motorists will choose not to change their rides unless necessary.

My prediction would be flat in the next bidding exercise, maybe just a mild decrease in the COE quota premium.

Prediction on July 29:
Category A: $13,000-14,000
Category B: $13,000-14,000

Verdict on August 6:
Category A: $12,501
Category B: $12,889

p/s My poll for visitors closed with four responses - 1 expected higher quota premium, 1 expected flat and 2 expected lower quota premium.

COE Prediction - July 2008 2nd Bidding Exercise

My poll for visitors currently has three responses - 1 expected higher quota premium, 2 expected flat and 0 expected lower quota premium. Now that the time elapse from the last bidding exercise is back to two weeks, there is less time for dealers to push the sales. There is one major event - the Straits Times CAR-nival at the Singapore Expo next weekend may be the beacon to keep demand up.

My prediction would be a fall in the COE quota premium - likely outcome is 10-20% drop while a flat outcome may be possible if we have more favourable news on inflation and fuel price.

Prediction on July 11:
Category A: $13,000-14,000
Category B: $13,000-14,000

Verdict on July 23:
Category A: $14,101
Category B: $14,235

My poll closed with two more responses for lower quota premium.

COE Prediction - July 2008 Bidding Exercise

My poll for visitors closed with four responses - 1 expected higher quota premium, 0 expected flat and 3 expected lower quota premium. With many news reports on recent inflation and uncertainty of crude oil price, it came as no surprise as the four pumps see an increase in price. I would also predict a lower quota premium but will take a position for an increase in quota premium for these reasons:
1. The elapse time between the last bidding exercise and this one is three weeks and thus, although the expected orders per week should be down, a 50% extra time would accumulate more in terms of absolute numbers.
2. The pricing is now closely pegged to the stablized quota premiums over the last 2 bidding exercises so dealers should have priced with reasonable tolerance.
3. The increase in pump prices would also encouraged motorists with guzzlers to replace them with a hybrid or CNG car in view of the lower car price and savings in fuel.

The next bidding exercise should see a mild increase before coming down in the 2nd bidding exercise in July.

Prediction on July 7:
Category A: $15,000-16,000
Category B: $15,000-16,000

Verdict on July 9:
Category A: $14,685
Category B: $15,501

Rebate Encashment

Extract from the LTA news release - "With effect from 1 September 2008, registered owners of un-used and valid PARF/COE rebates can apply to LTA to encash their rebates. This is an additional option available to owners. Owners who want to use their rebates to offset the upfront taxes payable for a new vehicle according to the practice today can continue to do so. LTA will continue to issue rebates to vehicle owners upon de-registration of their vehicles. The rebates will continue to be transferable and be valid for 12 months. This serves to provide flexibility to vehicle owners."

This is certainly a positive signal from LTA in response to public feedback on existing policies - the contradiction identified was that the PARF/COE rebates cannot be encashed before the policy change and used for the registration of a new car which did not support the government's goal to promote the use of public transportation and reduce the private car population.

Is the policy change impactful? I think it will achieve its purpose for FEW motorists since most of us develop the reliance on our own vehicle and the switch to public transportation for the family and ourselves is very hard once you have experienced the convenience. I would love to see our country leaders walk the talk by using public transportation themselves.

To persuade motorists to give up their cars and use public transportation, the latter should be constantly upgraded and improved so that it will be convenient for commuters to get from point to point comfortably, conveniently and on time.