COE Prediction - December 2008 1st Bidding Exercise

The local paper screamed "This is the best time to buy a car" and guess what? Many motorists believe the journalist and the showrooms were crowded over the weekend. The dealers had to increase the price as the orders keep rolling in.

Net effect is that buyers who locked in the lowest price may have to wait longer for the dealer to be successful in the bidding. Worst-case scenario is that the dealer may have priced too low and fail to get the COE even after the stipulated number of bids (may be up to six) in the purchase agreement. Buyer may be asked to top-up for COE after one or two failed attempts.

So is it really the right time to buy?

Prediction on November 27:
Category A: $7,000-8,000
Category B: $6,000-7,000

Verdict on December 3:
Category A: $7,721
Category B: $6,501

Tales of the $2 COE

The $2 Category A COE Quota Premium in the 2nd bidding exercise in November has brought a wide spectrum of reaction from motorists, dealers and the public. If you visit some of the motoring forums, you will come across interesting discussions about this freak bidding result.

The Happiest group
Buyers who were given a high COE rebate realized major savings to what they thought they are going to pay for their new rides. The highest rebate level that I know was $10,000 so the lucky buyers get a $9,998 discount.

Independent bidders should also be extremely pleased to have caught this rare opportunity of spending just $2 to get the certificate. Be reminded that $2 may not even get you pass some ERP gantries.

In-the-Middle group
Buyers who are given a low COE rebate realized some savings while the resale value of their new rides will be a lot lower compared to cars with high residual COE value.

The Angry group
Some buyers from Parallel Importers are screaming foul as the unethical dealers are not honouring verbal commitment of COE rebate. There are discussions of banding together and asking CASE to help them recover the "promised" COE rebate.

Another dozen angry persons are the bidders who had left their bid standing at $1. Think about that - they are the unlucky dozen who bidded and failed to secure a certificate.

Lesson Learned
This event has taught me an important point - NEVER neglect the details for CONTRACTS. If the purchase agreement contains all the details and includes all possible scenarios, then there should not be any conflict. Otherwise, the buyer and the dealer should cool down, sit together and try to come to a settlement without going to court and incurring hefty legal fees.

Fuel Consumption

This is now added as a tool after the frequent hits to the original post.

Here is the method to get a good estimate of your ride's actual fuel consumption:
Step 1. Fill your tank completely.
Step 2. Reset your trip meter.
Step 3. Drive till your fuel guage is low.
Step 4. Read your trip meter when you arrive at the pump for the refuel.
Step 5. Fill your tank completely.
Step 6. Write your distance travelled on your fuel receipt and you can compute the fuel consumption on the previous tank of petrol by dividing the distance travelled (km) with the volume of petrol added (l).
Step 7. Go to step 2.

You should do this continuously or at least several times in a cycle to get a good estimate because pump attendants practise personal approach to fill your tank - some rely on the auto-stop, some continue to add till the nearest dollar value, some continue to add to the brim, etc. The variability of the auto-stop also introduces some difference to the actual fuel added.

You can download the file SMFuelConsumptionV11.xls (MS Excel format, 136 KB) from my Shared DropBox folder https://www.dropbox.com/sh/4kwkgarn1qw0bej/AAAd-NqSxLxoVw6g2u7WXL6Ta?dl=0

COE Prediction - November 2008 2nd Bidding Exercise

The current economic state is not encouraging - Singapore in technical recession, DBS Bank will retench 900 employees, Las Vegas Sands' loan repayment difficulty and many others. The lack of positive news does not help to restore confidence. The pump price has even been adjusted down several times over the past few weeks.

I had gone for a test drive over the weekend and got a pleasant surprise that the offer can go below the printed list price. It seems orders are no longer rolling in and the sales folks need to meet their quota. I think demand will remain flat although there are some buyers who want to have a new ride for the Chinese New Year in January.

Is it a good time to buy? I would think so if your job is secured or your pocket is deep. Most important of all is that you have done your sums and feel comfortable with the purchase - do check out the tools on this blog to help in your analysis.

Prediction on November 10:
Category A: $9,000-10,000
Category B: $9,000-10,000

Verdict on November 19:
Category A: $2
Category B: $4,889

Note on November 19: There are 1,852 bids for the quota of 1,851 certificates. So my last-minute bid has driven up the COE by 100% from $1 to $2. Now I got to figure out what to do with the $2 certificate of entitlement...