COE Prediction - July 2009 1st Bidding Exercise

The oversubscribed rate for the June 2nd bidding exercise was 24% for Category A COEs and 41% for Category B COEs respectively. I also observed a spike in the over-subscription of Category E Open COEs to 115% from the usual of 75-100%. The time elapse from the last bidding exercise to the first one in July is THREE weeks so dealers have an additional week to collect the sales order. Judging from past trend, the quota premium is likely to continue its climb and the easy profit from the stock market may fuel even more demand.

Now that H1N1 is beyond the containment strategy, anxious parents and loved ones are ferrying their school-going kids to minimize the risk of infection of riding on public transportation especially during peak hours. Anyone seen coughing badly in a crowded MRT train will certainly raise many eyebrows. So will you pay for the safety of your own cabin space?

Prediction on June 30:
Category A: $14,000-15,000
Category B: $15,000-16,000

Verdict on July 8:
Category A: $14,310
Category B: $16,801

COE Prediction - June 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise

Sorry, folks! I am on an overseas holiday and do not have the time to do a deeper analysis. Here're my gut feel of the raising trend ...

Prediction on June 8:
Category A: $12,000-13,000
Category B: $11,000-12,000

Verdict on June 17:
Category A: $12,899
Category B: $14,840

No Guilty Party in Accidents

Strait Times: "No-fault motor claims" hits the headline news this morning. Motorists have recently been agonizing over fast raising motor insurance premium and inflated claims. A radical proposal to do away with third-party claims and have a "no-fault regime". The system is used in New Zealand, Canada and United States.

So what is a no-fault system? Motorists make claims against their own insurer in an accident irregardless who is at fault. The system eliminates disputes and theoretically reduces claims amount and insurance premiums in the long run.

The problem with third-party claims is that accident parties will always be encouraged to paint the story along this line "the other party is at fault!" so as to minimize any claim payout from his own motor insurance policy, avoid loss of no-claim discount and increased premium. There are vested interests for the workshop, doctor, lawyers, etc. to provide services and make profits, whether ethically or in-ethically. It is also difficult, expensive and time-consuming to prove who was at fault in court. Thus, I can understand why some insurers will just go ahead to pay any claim. They will just need to raise the insurance premium to recover the costs.

I strongly support the no-fault system since inflating claims will only impact the motorists' own insurance policy. Other major accident cases should then rightfully be addressed in court to find the party at fault.