D-I-Y Headlamp Bulb

I managed to change the H4 bulb for my left headlamp after doing some "research" ... I searched for "H4 bulb" on the local forum for my car make/model and found a kind soul "NSMan" has uploaded photos in sequence how to D-I-Y.

I bought the bulb from a nearby Esso petrol station, got a torch and follow the simple instructions.  The challenge is accessing the limited space to replace the bulb.  The instructions on removing the connector, rubber guard and pin holding the bulb helps tremendously.  There is no such instruction in the car manual.

So how many men are required to change a car's lightbulb?  Just one - either the mechanic or the owner with internet access 8-)

Make Roads Safe

Every 6 seconds someone is killed or seriously injured on the world’s roads. With 1.3 million road deaths each year this is a global epidemic comparable to Malaria or Tuberculosis. And like those killer diseases, road crashes prey on the young, the poor and the vulnerable. Yet by comparison to other global killers, road injury is utterly neglected.

Watch the video below and visit the official FIA site Make Roads Safe for more information about this decade-long campaign. You can help to support this cause by adding a web button link to the official site.

For my Twitter visitors, you can retweet RT Make Roads Safe - I pledge to slow down and be cautious in school zones.

Drivers at General Election 2011

Image source: www.ge.sg

The analogy using motoring was launched by Opposition MP Mr Low Thia Khiang in the first Workers' Party rally on April 28 (Source - The Straits Times):

WP chief Low Thia Khiang, speaking at the party's first rally in a field in Hougang Central, said: 'A co-driver is essential, especially when the road gets tougher to navigate. The co-driver is there to slap the driver when he drives off course or when he goes asleep.

'But, of course, if the driver is friendly and drives responsibly, we just keep talking to him to keep him awake.'

Describing the WP as someone without a driving licence, Mr Low said whether it could get a licence depends on the voters.

He cautioned that without co-drivers, Singaporeans would continue to be taken for a ride.

The analogy from Mr Low is very apt for describing the current political landscape and a series of rebuttal from the ruling party was spawned.

His motoring analogy has triggered my assessment of the state of local motoring for the last five years. I subscribed whole-heartedly to the Land Transport Masterplan (2008) that strives to meet the diverse needs of the people. I also personally felt that it is extremely difficult and complex to balance between the demand of the people and the available resources (supply) like road and transit networks, vehicle population control, etc.

The biggest issue that sticks in my mind is the COE Allocation Formula. Please read my previous post on Messed Up by Formula. The Transport Minister Mr. Raymond Lim seems to keep a low profile and I even had difficulty recalling his name. After the change to the Vehicle Quota System (VQS) Methodology in March 2010 (Source: LTA), his deputy, the Second Transport Minister Ms. Lim Hwee Hua dismissed lightly that the spike in certificate of entitlement (COE) premiums and car prices that week was not caused by changes to a formula to determine the number of replacement COEs (Source: AsiaOne). The flaw in the formula was acknowledged but I did not recall seeing any "apology". You should read how Ms. Lim disproved the correlation of the revised formula to the premium spike - I was simply amused.

The Motor Traders Association of Singapore (MTA) has written to Transport Minister Raymond Lim, in January 2011 to suggest the removal of taxis from the Category A COE quota, and doing away with Category E (open category) COEs (Source: CNA). MTA said taxi operators currently compete with the private car buyer for a COE as they are required to bid for a Category A COE to register their new taxis which add pressure on the Category A COE premiums and taxi operators are in a better position to bid more for COEs being business enterprises. The Transport Ministry said taxi companies made up only a small proportion of about 7% of the total successful bids for Category A COEs from July to December 2010. The ministry added that taxis are allowed to bid for COEs in Category A in recognition of the fact that they are part of the public transport spectrum, albeit at the high end. It said taxi companies replacing their fleet also need not necessarily bid for a new COE. They have the option of renewing expired COEs by paying the Prevailing Quota Premium (PQP).

If recommendations from MTA (made up of expert practitioners in the industry) cannot drive changes at the ministry, the voice of individual motorist is just a whisper in the wind. But on Polling day 7th May, my vote will be counted ...

Messed up by the Formula

Source - ST701

The Straits Times reported on April 16 that Second-hand car market in high gear - Tight COE supply sees used-car sales on track to hit 10-year high. POWERED by a meagre COE supply, used-car sales are continuing to rev up. In the first quarter of this year, 15,441 cars changed hands, a figure that is more than twice the 6,900 new cars sold, going by figures from the Land Transport Authority.

Sigh ... so how many of you are facing a situation which your current ride's Certificate Of Entitlement is expiring? The statistics indicate that more and more motorists have resorted to buying pre-owned cars. The critical question is whether the COE allocation formula can be tweaked for a balance between demand versus supply and what is the basis for the equilibrum point.

In LTA's current formulation for the quota system, the following are salient points
(a) The vehicle population growth rate has been set at 1.5% per annum for 3 years from 2009 to 2011.

Is this a reasonable target aligned to the population and GDP growth set by the government? Isn't it too low since the Electronic Road Pricing scheme is implemented to charge by usage rather than ownership?

(b) Taxi operators pay the prevailing quota premium (PQP) to replace their taxis within 6 months of de-registration of their taxis. If the taxi is not replaced by paying PQP, the de-registered taxis would be recycled as replacement COEs.

Why is this option not given to citizens but only to taxi operators? I would be glad to pay the PQP to register a new car and deregister my old one when the COE expiry approaches.

(c) COEs that have been successfully secured by bidders but were not utilised during their validity period were recycled.

There were about 250 certificates that were secured but had gone to "waste" as it made business sense for the dealers to forgo the low $5,000 deposit and bid for a lower priced COE in a downtrend.

(d) Category E receives 25% of the de-registrations from in each category.

We will eventually see an increase of luxury cars as most Category E COEs are used to register such cars. I am of the opinion that a single category based on quota premium per 1000 cc should serve the market better. If I register a 1,000 cc car, I pay the quota premium of eg. $10,000. For an expatriate getting a 4.8 l luxury sports car, he will have to pay $48,000.

(e) Adjustments for over-projections in Quota Years 2008 and 2009, as well as expired COEs from 2009 are spread over 22 bidding months from Apr 2010 to January 2012. An adjustment of -3,188 was factored in the 1st 4 months quota (Apr-Jul 2010), and the remaining -9,577 adjustments will be adjusted the next 12 months' quota (Feb 2011 - Jan 2012).

Thus, the tightening will continue until the start of 2012. For prospective upgraders, I would recommend holding out until then if your COE is not expiring.

In the mean time, we should all take good care of our rides and make them last as a new ride is an expensive option for now.

The Bidders must be Crazy

Chart source: http://www.st701.com/cars/coe

In complete contradiction to my last post that COE Quota Premium is flattening out, we have seen the meteoric rise of the COE Quota Premium past the $70K mark (for Category B and E) over the recent bidding exercises have put "COE" on the top of Yahoo's trending.

The Sunday Times 12 December published a good article "The COE Story" by Christopher Tan (article is reproduced here) that looks at the history of the Vehicle Quota System and traces the ups and downs of Category E (Open) quota premiums. However, the piece that caught my attention is the graphical illustration to the article (text by Feng Zeng Kun and graphics by Marlone Rubio).

Here are the key highlights:
April 1990 - Start of the Vehicle Quota Premium

October 1991 - Car (except Commercial and Open categories) and motorcycle COEs made non-transferable to stop speculators buying and selling them later for a profit.

January 1993 to November 1994 - Most experts believe the rise in COE prices across all categories is fuelled largely by speculation. Some speculators even use the non-transferable COEs to register vehicles and then resell them.

December 1994 to March 1995 - COE prices fall in anticipation of new government measures after quota premium has broken the $100K mark. Between January and March, the government rolls out a slew of measures to stop speculation. These include disallowing reselling of new vehicles within 3 months of purchase and imposing an additional fee for resale in the next 3 months.

January 1998 - Asian Financial Crisis hits Singapore and quota premium dropped from over $70K to the $30-40K range in early 1998.

April 1999 - COE supply formula revised to correct supply and demand time lag. Previously, the number of COEs for any year was determined by how many vehicles were deregistered the previous year. The new system estimates how many will be deregistered for the current year and issues that number of COEs. Revisions are made every six months to correct over- or under-projections.

July 2001 - An open bidding system is introduced for greater transparency. For the first time people can see the number of bids and the quantum of each bid. The COE quota each month are divided equally between the open and closed bidding systems.

April 2002 - The open bidding system completely replaces the closed bidding system.

January 2005 to March 2010 - Over-supply of COEs leads to faster-than-expected growth in vehicle population.

January 2010 - COE prices start to soar in anticipation of sharp supply cut and new quota formula.

March 2010 - Government announces new supply formula, reverting to basing COE quotas on past vehicle deregistrations. But this time, quotas are set every six months, instead of annually.

April 2010 - COE prices reach highest levels in 10 years with premium hitting $49K.

December 2010 - News of another quota shrinkage sparks panic bidding, sending premium to $76K.

After anti-speculation measures and limits to car loans are rolled out in the first quarter of 1995, COE prices headed south. Besides the blips in 1997, the downtrend lasted more than a decade.

So what is causing the COE quota premiums to soar in 2010? Here are the top three causes in my opinion:

1. COE supply formula - the reversion to basing on actual deregistration has sharply brought down supply and that causes a vicious cycle of existing vehicle owners delaying their replacement purchase.

2. Car population growth allowance - the government reduced the allowable annual growth rate for vehicle population to 1.5% from 3.0% in 2008. The subdued rate simply cannot support the influx of new buyers and aspiring upgraders. Quota premiums have already started to creep up in 2009.

3. Singapore population growth - The latest 2010 census counted the population at 5,076,700. With about 1.3 million foreigners working here, there should be many professionals who can afford luxury cars. Do you know that Mercedes and BMW are in the top three makes for new registrations? The data is available at onemotoring.com.sg.

It is extremely complex to balance usability, affordability and fairness in the Vehicle Quota System. We will definitely see new measures in 2011, especially with the General Election anticipated in the second quarter.

The option of changing the bidding system to pay what you bid is mentioned by the chairman of the GPC for Transport in a recent interview - I was wondering if he has gotten the idea from my recent blog post "Time for Pay as You Bid?". I feel that it should only apply to dealer's bid since individual bidder should not be penalized. It is also not possible to ban dealers from bidding as some buyers do not know how to bid by themselves (related post: Bid for your own COE)

Here's wishing you a Happy New Year and welcome 2011!

COE Quota Premium is Flattening Out

Chart source: http://www.st701.com/cars/coe

Category B COE Quota Premium is now fluctuating between the narrow band of $40-45K for the last seven bidding exercise. With the limited number of COEs at each bidding exercise, there are many motorists waiting on the sidelines to decide if they want to upgrade their rides. The phenomenon of such flat-line is associated with the lack of news and events to influence the market to rise or fall.

Is this good or bad news to potential buyers? Well, it is neither as there is really no news. I took a closer look at the Category A and Category E - they are consistent with Category B and do not give any clue to where COE quota premium is heading.

However, Category C is trending downwards which indicates that businesses are not rushing to replace ageing fleet, so business sentiment is somewhat cautious. Category D for motorcycles is trending upwards which indicates that the cheaper mode of transport is the only option for motor(cycl)ists priced out of the four-wheel markets.

What is my gut feel? It is unlikely to see a crash back to 2009 level of sub-$10K but I think the market will stay flat and may soften into 2011 as the world economies sputter under uncertain condition. For Category A buyers, you can consider it when quota premium is between $20-30K. For Category B buyers, you should be able to afford to go in even at current level.

Give Way to YOG

Happy 45th Birthday to Singapore! Fly Our flag.

Happy Birthday! I like this music video of the Singapore National Day Parade 2010 theme song, especially the closing part where our flags are put up on the facade of the housing flat.

Have you fly the flag on your ride? I have put up the decal from Esso on mine.

Overtrade to Improve Mileage?

Confused SG Driver has requested for advice via comment on my earlier post Overtrade for a New Ride?

Confused SG Driver said...
"Hi,
As mentioned by many other visitors to your blog, the information you have presented here is truly useful and concise!

And like many people who visit your blog, I'm currently looking to upgrade my present car. However, I'm not that great with detailed numbers and am perhaps not very adept at translating the full meaning and implications of the data which were calculated after entering them into your most detailed "used car" spreadsheet. As such, my present situation is like so:

1)I currently drive a second hand Mazda 3. I purchased this last year October (10/2009) at a price of $34k. My current monthly installment is $550 and my current mileage is approximately 79k. It was originally registered in 2005 october.

2)I understand that it sounds silly to sell my present car being that I have only bought it less than a year ago.However, I made the mistake of purchasing a '05 mazda 3 which has a appalling Fuel consumption of 10.4km/l, at best. I am in sales and drive alot, having to pump approximately 5 to 6 full tanks of 92 grade petrol at SPC for a cost of approx $70 to $80 per tank PER MONTH.

3)I am looking at a second hand 2009 Toyota Allion which has a highly praised Fuel consumption of around 15 to 17km/l.
A dealer has offered me a trade:To sell my Mazda 3 at $28k(being car paper value of 21k), and a buy of their second hand '09 Allion with a low mileage of less than 20k at a pice of $60k. I am also may be looking at a over trade of around $5k to help to settle all the administrative fees and requirements

So my question would be:

1) Would it be a good time to buy and sell right now(being that all cars are now inflated due to the high COE bidding)? Or should I wait further?

and If I waited further would I lose more money due to petrol costs (or touch wood maintainence costs) of the high fuel consuming Mazda 3?

And also, should I believe the car agent who tells me that ,should I choose to wait till October, they would only be able to export it and thus only be able to offer me much less for it?

Or

Should I buy the Allion in a moment of insanity, how long would I have to drive it before selling it in the future?Would it also make it doubly hard on me to sell it then being that I bought it at a high COE value peroid?

Thank You very much,
Confused SG Driver. "

I empathized the situation that you are currently in.  At the end of the (business) day, the dealer will only survive if there is business transaction.  Thus, you can tell your story to a dealer and almost every one of them can come up with a deal for you.  The key point is that you should make a proper financial analysis of the deal rather than an emotional one which you may experience a second regret.

Although you only numbered one question, I find many question marks in the final paragraph LOL.  I will attempt to answer each of them.

Q: Would it be a good time to buy and sell right now(being that all cars are now inflated due to the high COE bidding)? Or should I wait further?
Unfortunately, I am not Paul the Octopus and thus, cannot predict with 100% accuracy where the COE quota premium is trending in the future.  If you are buying and selling in back-to-back transactions, then almost anytime is fine since you either "buy low sell low" or "buy high sell high".  The real question is whether you really need to change your ride.


Q: and If I waited further would I lose more money due to petrol costs (or touch wood maintenance costs) of the high fuel consuming Mazda 3?
Petrol and maintenance costs are operating costs that you need to incur when you own a car.  I don't think you are losing more money unless you do your sums and prove that you spend more per month over the useful lifespan of the Mazda 3.


Q: And also, should I believe the car agent who tells me that ,should I choose to wait till October, they would only be able to export it and thus only be able to offer me much less for it?
Talk is cheap so you should based your computation on the paper value of the car, any trade-in quote by the dealer is just a bonus to you in lowering your cost of upgrading.  You may want to also check out online advertisements for used cars similar to the age and make of your ride.  The dealer will attempt to sell it at a good profit before exporting the car if it cannot be sold.  He will always take the most profitable (or most cost recovered if he made a bad call on a deal) route for himself. 


Q: Should I buy the Allion in a moment of insanity, how long would I have to drive it before selling it in the future?Would it also make it doubly hard on me to sell it then being that I bought it at a high COE value period?
Haha, I don't think you should doing anything rash if you are in moments of insanity.  The paper value of the car stays the same whether it is a high or low COE value period so that is how much the operating cost of the car should be computed.  If the question is how long you need to drive before selling the car without any cash top-up, you can see my post on When is Your Ride Breaking-Even?


Here is how I would recommend that you do your analysis:

1. Compute your monthly financial cost of ownership of the Mazda 3 for two scenarios:
a) the full useful life and add the fuel cost of $80x6 (worse case)
b) till the point of trade-in and add the fuel cost of $80x6 (worse case)

2. Compute your monthly financial cost of ownership of the Allion, including the overtrade amount and fuel cost (expected based on your optimistic assessment)

If you have all the number crunched, you can then make the decision based on the monthly cost of the Mazda 3 over the six years or the combined monthly cost of (1 year Mazda 3 usage plus 9 years Allion usage).

However, I have to warn you that the monthly operating cost is not realized until you fully used the car for its lifespan or when you sell the car.

Without all the actual numbers, I can only advise you to consider the additional fuel cost of the remaining 5 years of the Mazda 3.  Based on optimistic fuel saving of 1/3, you will save 1/3x$480 per month = $1,920 over the five years = $9,600.  Does it make sense if you are going to incur the $5,000 overtrade, loan prepayment penalty and other costs?  Yes, you may improve your mileage but you should also make sure the change will improve your financial health.

I hope this helps.  Please also read the following relevant posts for more insight.

Related posts: Lowering Cost of Ownership, Overtrade for a New Ride?, When is Your Ride Breaking-Even?

Give Way to Youth Olympians

Source: LTA

I am surprised this morning to find new road markings painted along the Pan-Island Expressway - "GIVE WAY OOOOO" (well, the five circles overlap ... oh, that is the Olympic symbol).  I am certainly NOT amused when two lanes of the expressway was closed for the LTA contractor to burn more of such markings and traffic slowed to a crawl as all vehicles have to filtered to the only passable lane.  A few thoughts immediately crossed my mind:

1. What warrants the "permanent" marking on the road for an event that lasts only two weeks?

2. This large marking cause some noise when I go over them.  And I am very concerned about riders' safety when going over the markings in wet weather.

3. Will posters on lighting poles function just as well to educate our motorists to give way to YOG buses or cars?  They are probably easier to install and remove.  Most importantly, they may cause only minimal inconvenience to other motorists.

4. I remember hearing over the radio news that the YOG budget had over-ran by about three times.  Is the road marking one of the extravagant ways of showing the world over YOG broadcast of our "world-class" effort to host the game?

I support the YOG too ... but not this BAD idea.

Red & White

When I first come across the new parking lots, I thought it was intended to celebrate the approaching National Day since they are painted in a mix of Red & White colour.  So are they for casual parking or season parking?  Or both?

I find it a pain to drive up many ramps since the lower decks in most multi-storey car parks are painted in Red for season parking.  The introduction of this new breed of parking lots should be welcomed by casual "parkers" - these dual-use lots can be used between 7am to 7pm. 

Source: ST701 Cars

However, season parking holders are unhappy when they returned before 7pm to find vacant lots only much further away.

I felt that this scheme is much more GREEN to mother earth since visitors no longer need to drive to higher decks to find vacant lots and thus, do not waste fuel. 

Who has Hitched a Ride?

I found this fellow hanging on to my car's radio antenna. It must have been taken for a ride since I parked earlier at a wooded area before driving over to TradeHub21. It is strong to have held tightly to the antenna since I must have driven above 70km/h on the way here.



Here's a close-up ... I still cannot make out if it is a grasshopper or a mantis or just a green cockroach.



Another shot with background of a wall.



Can you tell what insect is it?

Forum's responses:

1. Praying mantis
2. Grasshopper
3. Bush-cricket or katydid

And the interesting note about the web or saliva. So, here's what I found on examining the antenna - see the strand going across the left of the antenna.