COE Prediction - December 2009 1st Bidding Exercise

The oversubscribed rate for the November 2nd bidding exercise was 10%(previously 14%) for Category A, 18%(previously 12%) for Category B and 48%(previously 61%) for Category E (Open) COEs. With the exception of Category B, the others see the continued down-trending in number of bids.

With the extra week before the next bidding exercise, I predict that the quota premium will be supported at the current level despite the recent weakness in demand.

Prediction on November 24:
Category A: $17,000-18,000
Category B: $18,000-19,000

Verdict on December 9:
Category A: $18,502
Category B: $19,003

COE Prediction - November 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise

The oversubscribed rate for the November 1st bidding exercise was 14%(previously 34%) for Category A, 12%(previously 21%) for Category B and 61%(previously 85%) for Category E (Open) COEs. You can see the significant reduction in number of bids. The dealers have mostly adjusted their pricing downwards. One dealer has even lowered the selling price close to its cost.

I predict that the quota premium across all the Categories will inch upwards in the next bidding exercise as bargain hunters respond to the "sale".

Prediction on November 10:
Category A: $17,000-18,000
Category B: $19,000-20,000

Verdict on November 18:
Category A: $17,189
Category B: $18,002