Tuesday, August 28, 2007

COE Prediction - Sep 1st Bidding

Category A Quota Premium fell to $8,118 (50% drop) which was a second plunge this year while Category B Quota Premium declined about 15%. The drop were attributed to the Hungry Ghost month and also a suspected problem with the online bidding system. If there is indeed a problem with the system, do you think LTA should invalidate the bidding exercise and push the allocated quota to the next one? Why should those who put in their bids earlier get to enjoy this concession? I believe that most dealers will enter their bids earlier to avoid being caught again in case the problem is not resolved by LTA.

Dealers across the board have lowered the selling prices, mostly by about $2,000. One will wish that the selling price will come down by $8,000 but that is wishful thinking. The outcome is likely prove that the Hungry Ghosts do not stop people from spending their money buying big ticket items as the showrooms are thronged with crowds on knowing the opportunity to buy at a "cheaper" price.

Is it a good time to buy? If you have the intention to buy, this is one good opportunity. I am sure that Category A Quota Premium will rebounce to above $10,000 while there may a little weakness in the demand for Category B COEs with the current volatile stock market.

Prediction on August 28:
Category A: $14,000-15,000
Category B: $15,000-16,000

Verdict on September 5:
Category A: $17,999
Category B: $18,200

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