Tuesday, February 24, 2009

COE Prediction - March 2009 1st Bidding Exercise

I was surprised by the early LTA announcement about the cut in COE quota for 2009/2010 on February 12. But then again, this year's Budget was also delivered early with the Resilience Plan to tackle the current economic crisis. The timing of the announcement has indeed caused a rebound in the COE quota premium.

The most important impact of the rebound is to prop up the Prevailing Quota Premium (PQP) to discourage vehicles near their COE expiry from renewing the COE. Now the March PQP is $4,516 (Cat A) and $3,004 (Cat B). If the February 2nd bidding exercise had concluded in a similar 1st bidding exercise result (Cat A - $1,020, Cat B - $689), March PQP would have been $3,943 (Cat A) and $2,304 (Cat B). I believe that the March COE quota premium will average at $5,000. Thus, April PQP is estimated at $3,850 (Cat A) and $3,150 (Cat B). Advice for those considering COE renewal should do so immediately using the March PQP $3,004 for Category B vehicles and wait a month till the April PQP $3,850 (estimated) for Category A vehicles.

Prediction on February 24:
Category A: $4,000-5,000
Category B: $5,000-6,000

Verdict on March 4:
Category A: $4,890
Category B: $5,101


Anonymous said...

any prediction for 2nd coe bidding for march?

skxly said...

It is already posted on March 11. You can check the home page for the latest.