Tuesday, April 28, 2009

COE Prediction - May 2009 1st Bidding Exercise

The oversubscribed rate for the April 2nd bidding exercise was between 32% to 38%, lower than the previous 45%. The local paper has also interviewed an industry expert who commented that the COE quota premium will be supported in the next few rounds from accumulated orders over the last few weeks before the 2009/2010 quota reduction. You may have also read in the local forums about the long waiting time for some popular makes as the authorized distributors do not have stock on hand. In those cases, the ADs may opt to delay the bidding since some sales agreements allow for up to six non-guaranteed bids.

I reckon that the COE quota premium will stay in the $6K to $8K band.

Prediction on April 28:
Category A: $7,000-8,000
Category B: $7,000-8,000

Verdict on May 6:
Category A: $8,489
Category B: $7,552

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