Thursday, October 8, 2009
Lucky Bid Price
One interesting observation on the first bidding exercise in October is the number of unused COEs as shown below:
The proportion of unused COEs for Category A and B are 6.9% (79/1151) and 2.8% (19/685) respectively. I wonder what drives the high number of unused Category A COEs. Any idea?
The winning bid price for this exercise is $16,201. Since LTA will not award more than the stated quota of 1,151 Category A COEs in the announcement, there must be more than 79 bids of $16,200. These following past results support the hypothesis that bid prices ending with the digit '0' or '8' are very popular:
Jul 2nd bid - 25 unused Category B COEs for quota premium $18,501
Jun 1st bid - 20 unused Category B COEs for quota premium $11,889
May 2nd bid - 19 unused Category A COEs for quota premium $9,889
Apr 1st bid - 54 unused Category B COEs for quota premium $7,501
Jan 1st bid - 55 unused Category A COEs for quota premium $5,001
And here's the 2009 summary count of each final lowest winning bid's digit. You should note that digits 0, 1 and 9 have the most occurrences while digits 4 and 7 have never won. I also find it surprising that digit 8 only appears once.
Do you want to lose out on the winning bid price by just ONE dollar? Surely not, so do remember to end your bid price with the digit '1' or '9'!
Disclaimer: This formula may not get you the winning bid. You may remember that Category A quota premium in Nov 2008 2nd Bidding is $2.
Related post: Bid for your Own COE