Monday, December 21, 2009

COE Prediction - December 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise

I have been away on vacation to explain the late posting. The oversubscribed rate for the December 1st bidding exercise was 45%(previously 10%) for Category A, 24%(previously 18%) for Category B and 45%(previously 48%) for Category E (Open) COEs. You can see that the resistance for higher category A quota premium - meaning that dealers are not willing to compromise their profits to bid more.

Now that the bidding cycle is back to two weeks, I predict that the quota premium should be supported at the current level with slight weakness in category A.

Prediction on December 21:
Category A: $17,000-18,000
Category B: $19,000-20,000

Verdict on December 23:
Category A: $18,150
Category B: $17,889

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