Thursday, March 4, 2010

COE Prediction - March 2010 1st Bidding Exercise

The oversubscribed rate for the February 2nd bidding exercise was 30%(previously 15%) for Category A, 45%(previously 35%) for Category B and 114%(previously 79%) for Category E (Open) COEs. With the imminent change to the COE supply to be tabled at the parliament, motorists eyeing for upgrades or ride refresh are rushing back into their purchases.  The likely tweak to the COE supply will be based on a quarterly review of actual vehicles scrapped versus the current annual review. Most industry watchers believe that the supply will be clamped down since the over-estimation in the last cycle has resulted in the vehicle population growing 4.8%, way over the government target cap of 1.5% (Source: Straits Times).  Some dealers will be aggressive in their pricing and COE bidding to retain market share.  It seems that the days of COE quota premium under $5K are over.

Prediction on March 4:
Category A: $21,000-22,000
Category B: $23,000-24,000

Verdict on March 10:
Category A: $20,802
Category B: $26,389

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