Where is COE Heading?

I predicted before the last bidding exercise closed on Jul 4 that the COE quota premium will soften marginally and it turned out to be so.

http://forum.carma.com.sg/showthread.php?t=1231505

We have seen a dip in Cat A premium in the last bidding exercise. Do you think it will soften further? I guess it will be slightly lower due to the Great Singapore Sale fatique since most folks have dipped into their pockets to buy that larger flat-screen and jewellery ahead of the GST increase. However, you can see dealers holding promotional events .... Nissan carnival ... Strait Times car-nival ... there is always an excuse for buying - less COE quota from Oct, freebies like more servicing (note that these are dealer's fixed cost), lucky draw (hey, how many of you have won frequently?) .....

It was reported today on the Strait Times that its Cats Classified Car-nival chalked up S$31.8 million of sales with more than 555 cars sold. So there are already at least 1,100 serious bids with the new purchases and 550 unsuccessful ones from the last bidding exercise. I think the outcome in the next bidding exercise should be similar.

I am trying to use regression analysis to predict the trend ... I am still working on it so do stay tuned.