Sunday, November 18, 2007

COE Prediction - November 2nd Bidding Exercise

Time flies so quickly and the next bidding exercise is just around the corner. I must admit that I have been tardy in posting the latest prediction and that is due to my heavy travel schedule over these few weeks. I did not follow much of the current motoring news but was informed by the C&C agent about promotional prices over this weekend - $4,000 off the large cc cars (>1,600cc)! I took that as a signal of slow orders.

The stock market has been volatile in the past week and many punters have lost money. Although Christmas is approaching, I think few motorists buy themselves an expensive Christmas present like a car, unlike most Chinese wanting a new car to welcome the Lunar New Year. Thus, my prediction for the second November bidding is a mild softening of quota premium due to the shorter elapse time from the last exercise but that is countered with spill-over of unsuccessful bids in Category A.

Prediction on November 18:
Category A: $15,000-16,000
Category B: $17,000-18,000

Verdict on November 21:
Category A: $14,404
Category B: $16,401

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