Monday, December 31, 2007

COE Prediction - January 1st Bidding Exercise

I reflected on the year 2007 which is a very eventful one for me - my previous role at my workplace was eliminated at around this time last year and it was quite a roller-coaster ride as I bidded on new roles and found a new role which is quite a change. I am now in a project role which will last only 24 months. So even though I was tempted to upgrade my ride, I don't think I should take up a new motor loan when job security is not assured. Another important factor is that my current ride is still in an excellent condition and I had also survived a major incident with it (I will write about the incident later).

There have been several local newspaper articles on COE and the softening of demand for new cars due to the young age of most vehicles on the road and longer loans taken up by motorists. As the Lunar New Year draws closer, demand for Category B COE will increase since Chinese business men are willing to pay for a new luxury ride while demand for Category A COE will sustain at current level with the average motorists being hit by the increased cost of living.

Oops! I have made a mistake in the bidding exercise date, thinking that the bidding will close on Wednesday January 2 when it is not even open yet. Thus, I have to revise the prediction in view of the three-week elapse time from the last bidding exercise.

Prediction on December 31:
Category A: $14,000-15,000
Category B: $16,000-17,000

Prediction revised on January 2:
Category A: $15,000-16,000
Category B: $17,000-18,000

Verdict on January 9:
Category A: $14,052
Category B: $15,989

Gee, my original prediction is much closer. Well, demand is really slowing down ...

No comments: