Tuesday, August 26, 2008

COE Prediction - September 2008 1st Bidding Exercise

Looking at the previous result, it seems that the Hungry Ghosts did not scare car buyers off. The increase will lead to corresponding adjustment to the selling price, but dealers are probably minimizing price increase to encourage more sales in the current weak climate.

Update Aug 30: It was reported in the papers that the car population has been increasing in spite of the higher cost and it was mainly due to fewer older cars being taken off the roads as motorists are keeping their rides longer. Thus, LTA is likely to reduce the allocation of COEs in the next review. I got a strong gut feeling that motorists considering upgrading their rides will bite the bullet and buy now in anticipation of a raising trend. I am revising my prediction upwards accordingly.

Prediction on August 27:
Category A: $12,000-13,000
Category B: $12,000-13,000

Prediction on August 30:
Category A: $13,000-14,000
Category B: $14,000-15,000

Verdict on September 3:
Category A: $ 9,501
Category B: $13,389

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