Friday, March 27, 2009

COE Prediction - April 2009 1st Bidding Exercise

The approaching bidding exercise is the first one with quota reduced in the cut in COE quota for the period 2009/2010. LTA has not yet announced the actual quota for the first exercise but I have computed the estimates: 1,395 COEs for Category A, 760 COEs for Category B and 716 COEs for Category E (Open).

With the three weeks' elapse time from the March 2nd Bidding Exercise, I believe that the sales orders will accumulate in numbers and coupled with the reduced supply, the COE quota premium should see strong support. The recent stock market rally from the bottom in early March may also boost some confidence.

Prediction on March 27:
Category A: $6,000-7,000
Category B: $6,000-7,000

Verdict on April 8:
Category A: $7,090
Category B: $7,501

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