Monday, April 13, 2009
COE Prediction - April 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise
The April 1st Bidding Exercise outcome was within my expectation. I do have two interesting observations:
1. 54 Category B COEs were not awarded due to the high volume of unsuccessful $7,500 bids. The dealers could not increase their bids in time before the bidding exercise closed at 4pm. The dealers will probably put in a higher bids in the next exercise since their customers must be frustrated to have their new car delivery delayed for another fortnight.
2. Both categories were over subscribed by 45%. I felt that the demand is still weak considering the three weeks' elapse time before the bidding exercise. An estimated 5-10% of the bids are low opportunistic ones so the number of genuine buyers is low in my opinion.
I noticed that most authorized dealers' car advertisements over the long weekend do not have prices shown. I think many of them are split as to where the COE quota premium is heading. My guess ... flat or slight softening in the next bidding exercise.
Prediction on April 13:
Category A: $6,000-7,000
Category B: $6,000-7,000
Verdict on April 22:
Category A: $7,589
Category B: $7,490