Monday, April 13, 2009

COE Prediction - April 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise

The April 1st Bidding Exercise outcome was within my expectation. I do have two interesting observations:

1. 54 Category B COEs were not awarded due to the high volume of unsuccessful $7,500 bids. The dealers could not increase their bids in time before the bidding exercise closed at 4pm. The dealers will probably put in a higher bids in the next exercise since their customers must be frustrated to have their new car delivery delayed for another fortnight.

2. Both categories were over subscribed by 45%. I felt that the demand is still weak considering the three weeks' elapse time before the bidding exercise. An estimated 5-10% of the bids are low opportunistic ones so the number of genuine buyers is low in my opinion.

I noticed that most authorized dealers' car advertisements over the long weekend do not have prices shown. I think many of them are split as to where the COE quota premium is heading. My guess ... flat or slight softening in the next bidding exercise.

Prediction on April 13:
Category A: $6,000-7,000
Category B: $6,000-7,000

Verdict on April 22:
Category A: $7,589
Category B: $7,490


Anonymous said...

do you think the price will be soften in next 2 -3 bidding? tks

skxly said...

The oversubscribed rate for this round is between 32% to 38%, lower than the previous 45%. I reckon that the quota premium will stay in the $6K to $8K band.

Kay said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kay said...

Hi skxly,

I am Kay from Your articles are very well-written and very informative. I can identify with some of the issues such as whether one can afford a car, cost of ownership and evaluating a car deal and all these have to do with the effective use of money.

Currently, I am blogging mainly on investment and financial topics mainly out of interest and to create awareness about making prudent financial decisions. As such, I would like to invite you to be a writer on my site. It would be a privilege to have you as a contributor towards cars and motoring topics. If this sounds good to you, feel free to contact me at I look forward to your reply.


Anonymous said...

any new post in this for May bidding cycle:-)

skxly said...

Kay, thanks for your kind words. I will respond to you via email after the weekend.

Anonymous, I will usually post a prediction after the weekend. The car ads on Saturdays is one of info I use 8-)

Enjoy the weekend!

Kay said...

Hi skxly,

Enjoy your weekend too :)