Thursday, July 9, 2009

COE Prediction - July 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise

Although COE quota premiums posted strong increases across the categories for cars to end at their highest levels in over 12 months, the oversubscribed rate for the July 1st bidding exercise lowered from 24% to 18% for Category A COEs and from 41% to 35% for Category B COEs respectively when compared to the previous bidding exercise. The reduction in bids is a surprise since the time elapse from the last bidding exercise to the first one in July is THREE weeks.

It seems that resistance from the rising car prices is kicking in. The traffic at car showrooms should be dampen over the next two weeks. The one event that may sustain the demand is the CATS Classified Car-nival to be held on Sunday July 12 at the Singapore Expo.

My prediction is that the quota premiums for the next bid should remain flat or raise slightly. The only blip expected for Category B is when Ferrari's new distributor acts on the 120+ orders for the new model California convertible that were refunded from Hong Seh Motors, the previous distributor.

Prediction on July 9:
Category A: $14,000-15,000
Category B: $16,000-17,000

Verdict on July 22:
Category A: $15,291
Category B: $18,501

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