Monday, December 28, 2009

COE Prediction - January 2010 1st Bidding Exercise

The weakness in Category B quota premium signalled no rebound in premium car market despite better economy (as reported in the Business Times). Dealers are also giving more discount to lure buyers facing reduced or no year end bonus.

The oversubscribed rate for the December 2nd bidding exercise was 28%(previously 45%) for Category A, 23%(previously 24%) for Category B and 75%(previously 45%) for Category E (Open) COEs. You can see that the category A COEs for earlier small car purchases had been rapidly fulfilled if you take into account of the 575 Open Category E certificates used.

With many away on holiday travel and shopping fatigue kicking in, I predict that the quota premium may see weakness across all categories.

Prediction on December 28:
Category A: $17,000-18,000
Category B: $16,000-17,000

Verdict on January 6:
Category A: 18,502
Category B: 19,190

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