Wednesday, January 27, 2010

COE Prediction - February 2010 1st Bidding Exercise

I was surprised that the strong demand for Category A COEs have pushed the quota premium past the $20K mark. The upcoming bidding exercise will be the final one that enables delivery before the China New Year.

The oversubscribed rate for the January 2nd bidding exercise was 46%(previously 17%) for Category A, 54%(previously 30%) for Category B and 128%(previously 78%) for Category E (Open) COEs. With the flood of bids in the last bidding exercise, I predict that the quota premium in this coming exercise will continue to be supported by the stronger demand.

If you have no urge to have a new car by CNY but want to upgrade/update your ride, you may want to consider visiting the showroom after the next bid and sieve out a bargain. If there are not too many unfulfilled orders, COE quota premium may dip back to the $15-20K range.

Prediction on January 27:
Category A: $21,000-22,000
Category B: $22,000-23,000

Verdict on February 3:
Category A: $19,989
Category B: $23,180

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