Monday, September 14, 2009

COE Prediction - September 2009 2nd Bidding Exercise

The oversubscribed rate for the September 1st bidding exercise was 33% for Category A, 31% for Category B and 70% for Category E (Open) COEs. We see increases across all the categories due to the extended elapse time of three weeks. Some dealers have upped the selling price of their cars by up to $3,000.

With the normal two-week elapse time, I do not think the uptrend can be supported. I predict that the quota premium will retreat and test the $20K mark in Q4 only if LTA confirms a reduction of COEs in its review.

Prediction on September 14:
Category A: $16,000-17,000
Category B: $18,000-19,000

Verdict on September 24:
Category A: $15,589
Category B: $19,801

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